Daily Intelligence: Trump-Xi Summit, Energy as a Macro Tax, and a More Selective AI Market

Executive summary

• Trump-Xi talks reduce immediate tail risk but do not resolve structural tech-trade frictions.
• Energy remains the core macro tax on margins and discount rates.
• AI leadership keeps shifting from feature velocity to monetization and resilience.
• Markets remain selective, rewarding cash-flow quality over narrative beta.

Scenario conclusion

• Base (55%): tactical geopolitical relief, structurally tight energy backdrop, selective leadership.
• Bull (20%): concrete trade progress and softer energy.
• Bear (25%): renewed route-risk escalation and broader risk-off repricing.